Road toll decline continues

A new federal government report indicates the nation's roads are safer than ever before -- but doesn't explain why

Western Australia is the one state that has shown an increase in fatalities on the road over the past five years.

Every other state or territory has recorded fewer deaths, on average, between the years 2006 to 2011, according to a report -- 'Road Deaths Australia' -- issued by the Department of Infrastructure and Transport last month.

Even with the 0.9 per cent upswing in fatalities over in the west, the national average has dropped by 4.0 per cent, based on total road deaths. That's percentage change to the total number of deaths, not a proportional figure based on deaths per 100,000 people or deaths per 100 million km travelled.

So not only are your chances of dying on the nation's roads reduced by 4.0 per cent, they're even better still when expressed as a proportion of the total population, which actually grew by over two million people (around 10 per cent) during the period from December 2005 to March 2011 -- roughly the same timeframe as the Department of Infrastructure's five-year analysis.

The largest improvement occurred in Tasmania (7.9 per cent), but every state or territory other than WA registered at least a 4.0 per cent reduction in fatalities. Unfortunately, the stats alone tell us little. Why, for example, has Western Australia's countertrend occurred? Is it somehow a side effect of that state's massive mining boom?

And what of the other states? While the trend has been downwards, averaged across the five-year period, practically every state other than WA (and the two territories) experienced higher levels of fatality on the roads for the last two years, according to the report. Why was that? The report cites higher fatality statistics for most states during the reporting period March 2010 to Feb 2011, versus the previous year, March 2009 to Feb 2010. Could it be that the sudden end to the El Niño event last year, resulting in heavy rainfall through eastern Australia, played a part in that change to the five-year trend during the last 12 months?

The new report can be read here, but of even greater interest is a more comprehensive report prepared by the department back in May 2009 .

In the older report, the authors produced a table outlining the number of deaths per 100,000 of population and another for deaths per 100 million vehicle kilometres travelled. The former table is a collation of fatalities, state by state, since 1975. Between that year and the final year of the report, 2008, deaths per 100,000 fell from 26.59 across the nation, to 6.85 -- a 74 per cent reduction during a period of easily measurable population growth.

The most immediate and dramatic improvement occurred in Victoria, between 1975 and 1980 -- presumably a consequence of introducing mandatory seatbelts -- when the rate dropped from 24.03 to 16.78. After that, the reduction barely changed over the five years to 1985 (16.58). The decline in deaths in Victoria since then has been steadier and slower, but has fallen to 5.72 for 2008 nonetheless -- slightly worse than New South Wales' figure of 5.70.

At least part of the decline during the 1990s could be attributed to vehicle safety gains, with one example being the near universal implementation of airbags for driver and front passenger. That technology and other secondary safety features have gradually filtered through to the vehicle parc as older cars games  are scrapped and replaced by newer cars. No doubt that trickle-down effect of new safety technology has been key to the gradual shrinking number of road fatalities.

In the table of deaths per 100 million kilometres travelled, the national figure of 3.55 in 1976 has been whittled down to 0.74 in 2007 -- a 79 per cent reduction. The slightly higher percentage than the rate of fatalities per 100,000 people suggests that either we're travelling shorter distances, which seems unlikely, or road design and vehicle safety systems have improved out of sight.

That trend will continue, with state governments around the nation constantly improving roads and signage, and vehicle safety systems becoming ever more sophisticated at all  levels -- whether by the manufacturer's own efforts or through legislation.

With the Victorian government already insisting that all new passenger cars sold in the state are fitted with stability control from the start of this year -- and the federal government following suit -- we can expect to see another significant drop in road deaths five years from now.

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